Meltdown of Shopping Malls in Malaysia
Has It Begun?
In my Article published in this
Newspaper on 25-02-2018, I examined the evidences and concluded that the “Crash of the Malaysian Property Market has
begun”.
In this Article I will examine
the Shopping Mall Industry in Malaysia
and in particular in the Klang
Valley with the view to
find an answer to the question:-
“Meltdown of Shopping Malls in Malaysia , has
it begun?
Supply of Retail (Shopping Mall) Spaces in the Klang Valley
– Prior to 2018
Our journey of discovery starts
with an examination of the “supply of
retail (shopping mall) spaces in the Klang Valley, prior to 2018”
1.00 On 1st November 2011, Allan
Soo of Richard Ellis was quoted by the Star Online as stating as
follows:-
i) The Klang Valley would overtake Singapore in terms of retail space
per capita
ii) As of the third quarter of 2011, total retail space supply
in the Klang Valley was 43.7 million sq ft housed in
133 shopping centres and hypermarkets which was equivalent to 7.1 sq ft per
capita (based on population of 6.1 million)
iii) This is higher than Bangkok , Thailand which stands at about 6.5 sq ft per
capita, and equivalent to Singapore .
iv) By 2014, the Klang
Valley would have 53
million sq ft of retail space housed in 149 malls and hypermarkets
v) Only about 43 shopping centres and hypermarkets out of the
existing 133 (or 30%) were performing well as at November 2011.
2.00 On 11th August 2012, the
Star Online reported as follows:-
vi) A BIG pipeline of commercial properties in and around the city centre
itching to be launched over the next decade or so is stoking concerns by the
day
vii) Close to half of the TRX real estate project will comprise office
buildings. The project comes along at a time when many other mammoth commercial
projects such as the re-development of the 926 hectares Rubber Research
Institute (RRI) Malaysia land in Sungai Buloh and Permodalan Nasional Berhad’s
proposed 100 storey Menara Warisan Merdeka
are poised to take off
3.00 On 11th August 2012, Lim
Eng Chong of Henry Butcher Malaysia was quoted by the Star Online as
stating as follows:-
viii) As it is now, there is already an oversupply of commercial properties in
and around the city centre”
4.00 On 11th August 2012, James
Wong of VPC was quoted by the Star Online as stating as follows:-
ix) The take-up rate for commercial buildings which are being
built and will be completed this year stands at below 50%”
x) This is for commercial properties in and around the city,
but the same scenario exists further away from KL, such as in Cyberjaya; there
is already an oversupply situation
Conclusion of Malaysian Property Consultants on the Supply of Retail
(Shopping Mall) Spaces in the Klang Valley as at August
2012_______________________________________
It appears that Corporate Malaysia is BULLISH
on the Development of Commercial Properties in the Klang Valley
into the 2020s.
Malaysian Property Consultants are almost unanimous
in their interpretation of the situation involving the Supply of Retail
(Shopping Mall) Spaces in Malaysia ,
and in particular the Klang
Valley .
Malaysian Property Consultants conclude
that:-
“There is an oversupply of
Commercial properties including Office and Retail (Shopping Mall) spaces in Malaysia
and especially in the Klang
Valley ”
Supply of Retail (Shopping Mall) Spaces in the Klang Valley
– in March 2018
In 2018 what is the situation with
the “supply of retail (shopping mall)
spaces in the Klang
Valley in March 2018”
American Billionaire Investor Warren Buffet's advice on
investment:
"When others are
bullish, we should be fearful”.
“When others are fearful, we should be bullish"
Did Corporate Malaysia
take
heed of Warren Buffet's advice on their Development of Commercial
Properties in the Klang
Valley since 2012?
We shall examine a report
published by Malay Mail Online on 14th March 2018 with the
headline:-
“Malls facing meltdown as glut continues”
In the report published on 14th March 2018, Malay
Mail stated that, and I quote:-
“True occupancy rates in Klang Valley malls may be as low as 40% in
some areas according to a Financial Times (FT) article cataloguing the country’s
continued obsessions with building more shopping space despite chronic
oversupply”
“On the ground evidence
also suggests that mall operators are still struggling”
“The FT said 18.3 per cent of respondents in its survey of 1,000
shoppers in the Klang
Valley said they planned
to make fewer trips to shopping malls in the next 12 months.
“The FT said 22.2 per cent of respondents in its survey of 1,000
shoppers in Kuala Lumpur
said they planned to make fewer trips to shopping malls in the next 12 months.
“Data from the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) show that
in 2018 another 15% new spaces will be added to existing mall spaces”
Malaysian families do not have enough
money to spend
The decline in occupancy rates in
Shopping Malls in the Klang Valley, in addition to Corporate Malaysia’s BULLISH
attitude towards the Development of Commercial Properties in the Klang Valley
into the 2020s, may also be attributed to the fact that Malaysian families do
not have enough money to spend due to inflation and rising cost of living per
the finding of Ameer Ali Mydin of Mydin Hypermarket Chain.
Finding of Ameer Ali Mydin of Mydin Hypermarket Chain
The Malaysian Insight on 5th
February 2018 highlighted the plight of Malaysian families with the headline:-
“Despite growing economy, people just don’t have enough money”
In the report published on 5th
February 2018, Ameer Ali Mydin of Mydin Hypermarket Chain was quoted by The
Malaysian Insight as having said, and I quote:-
“The average consumer is unable to meet the rising cost of goods even
as the country reports high economic growth”
“I think people just don’t
have money”.
“The slump in growth for hypermarkets, due to low sales, occurred at
prices of more than 100 common foods that shot up by 14% to 15% in the past 5
years”
“On individual items the prices increases are scary. For instance,
cabbage from Cameron
Highlands has gone up by
a total of 29% over the last five years”
“Ikan kembung hitam (Indian mackerel) by 19%, Maggi brand Chilli Sauce
by 38.8% and Ayam brand sardines by 30.6%”
If my prices go up, I’m sure my competitors’ prices would also go up.
We are a market leader, our prices go up when our costs go up”
“The rising price of goods have impacted sales at all hypermarkets that
accounted for 50% of all groceries sold in Malaysia ”
The Malaysian Insight Report also
stated that:-
i) In
the first quarter of 2017, overall retail sales declined by 1.2% but
hypermarket sales went down by 4.8%
ii) In
the third quarter of 2017, the retail sector shrunk by 1.1% while hypermarket
growth declined by 5%
Summary of Findings
The state of the
Shopping Mall Industry in Malaysia
and in particular in the Klang
Valley may be summarized
as follows:-
i) As early as 2012, Malaysian Property Consultants CONCLUDED
that:-
“There is an oversupply of Commercial properties including Office and Retail
(Shopping Mall) spaces in Malaysia and especially in the Klang Valley ”
ii) The Malaysian Insight Report published
on 5th February 2018, quoted Ameer Ali Mydin of Mydin Hypermarket
Chain as having said that:-
“The
average consumer is unable to meet the rising cost of goods even as the country
reports high economic growth”
“I think people just
don’t have money”.
“The
rising price of goods have impacted sales at all hypermarkets that accounted
for 50% of all groceries sold in Malaysia ”
iii) The Malaysian Insight published on 5th
February 2018 reported that in the third quarter of 2017, the retail sector
shrunk by 1.1% while hypermarket growth declined by 5%
iv) The
Malay Mail Online published on 14th March 2018 quoting from a
Financial Times (FT) article reported that:-
“True occupancy rates in Klang Valley
malls may be as low as 40% in some areas and on the ground evidence also
suggests that mall operators are still struggling”
Conclusion
At the outset of this Article, I
asked the question “Meltdown of Shopping Malls in Malaysia , has it begun?
Based on the contents stated
above, I conclude that:-
i) There is an oversupply of
Retail (Shopping Mall) spaces in Malaysia and especially in the Klang Valley
since 2012
ii) Oversupply of Retail (Shopping Mall) spaces further
deteriorated between 2012 and 2017 until in March 2018 many Klang Valley
malls are 40% occupied with mall operators struggling
iii) Malaysian consumers do not have money to
spend and are not able to meet the rising cost of goods
iv) Many hypermarkets and other retailers
have less customers resulting in reduced sales and lower profits.
v) The decline in sales and profits
experienced by hypermarkets and other retailers in the malls may lead to these
hypermarkets’ and retailers’ closures.
vi)
The closures of hypermarkets and retailers in the malls
would inevitably lead to the eventual closure of the affected Malls.
The Reality
The
above scenarios are already happening.
The recent announcement by
Parkson that they are closing their Outlets in Maju Junction and Sungai Wang Plaza , both in Kuala Lumpur
may be the sign that “the Meltdown of Shopping Malls in Malaysia , in particular in Kuala Lumpur has begun”